Michael W. Traugott, Professor, Communication Studies 

I think that by definition the bill can't be simple, that has to be complex, because our healthcare system is complex, and one of the reasons that we so desperately need reform is that it's consuming about one-sixth of our gross domestic product.

So we have to have a complex set of policies and regulations in order to try to control it. But the other complication is that the President didn't take any initiative, or take the lead in developing the legislation. So in the house we actually have five different bills coming out of five different committees. Most of the emphasis in the Senate has been on this bill from the Finance Committee, from Senator Baucus' Bill. But eventually this going to have to be some compromise between the bill that's passed in the House, and the bill that's passed in the Senate in a conference committee.

Americans can't be fully informed about the legislation, because first of all there isn't a single piece of legislation, and the full details of the legislation haven't been subject of public discussion and debate. The public opinion data suggests that among those who have health insurance, they are satisfied with it, the big missing group in terms of how the public is evaluating the process is those who aren't insured, and finding out what they think they will gain from the eventual passage of healthcare reform. I think that at this stage in the process there are no prospects for concessions or for anything that would resemble bipartisanship.

This is not related to the issue of public healthcare, this is just the matter of the current state of polarized politics in Washington and particular in the Congress right now. The Republicans can't compromise with the Democrats because they have no specific proposal of their own. So there is no room for negotiation between the two proposals, and the Republicans haven't been willing along the way in either the House or the Senate to take an active part in discussion or negotiation of the actual policy that is embodied in the legislation.

I think that it's very likely that there will be a piece of legislation that passes. It's very important to the Democrats as a matter of reform and the agenda on which Barack Obama ran for the presidency, and on which many members of Congress were elected for the first time. It won't accomplish all of the things that the President laid out as essential for reform, but it will be a very important first step along the path to reform.